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Q3 Auto Earnings Preview: 4 Stocks Set to Beat Estimates
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The third-quarter earnings season for the Auto-Tires-Trucks sector kicks off on Oct. 20. Despite rising affordability pressures, the U.S. auto market has remained relatively resilient, supported by fleet purchases and demand from higher-income buyers. Easier access to credit has also helped cushion the impact of persistent inflation and weak consumer confidence.
Per the Earnings Outlook report dated Oct. 14, the auto sector’s earnings and revenues for third-quarter 2026 are expected to grow 3.4% and 0.6%, respectively, on a year-over-year basis. We have identified — with the help of the Zacks Stock Screener — a few auto players that are set to outshine the Zacks Consensus Estimate this earnings season.
These include General Motors (GM - Free Report) , PACCAR (PCAR - Free Report) , Ford (F - Free Report) and Rivian Automotive (RIVN - Free Report) . Before we discuss the companies, let’s take a look at the factors shaping the quarterly performance.
Factors at Play
The U.S. auto market continued to show resilience despite affordability pressures. New-vehicle sales declined 0.7% year over year to roughly 4.12 million units in the third quarter, per Cox Automotive. For the first nine months of 2026, sales fell about 2% to 12.06 million units. High fuel prices, persistent inflation and rising living costs have been weighing on household budgets, yet demand has held up better than expected.
However, the strength is not evenly distributed. Kelley Blue Book reported that the average transaction price of a new vehicle rose for the fourth consecutive month in September to $50,562, approaching the record of $50,614 set in December 2025. This price environment is increasingly pushing budget-conscious buyers out of the new-car market, while wealthier consumers continue to support sales. Greater access to credit is also helping sustain demand.
Fleet purchases are providing another important source of support. They accounted for 20% of U.S. vehicle sales during the first nine months, with government and rental purchases increasing 7%. In contrast, retail sales to individual consumers declined 5%, highlighting the growing importance of fleet demand in offsetting weakness in the consumer market.
Electric vehicles (EVs) have also held up better than expected. U.S. EV sales reached 262,649 units in the third quarter, up 6.1% sequentially and marking their strongest quarterly showing since the third quarter of 2025. However, sales remained 39.5% below the year-ago level, but that’s a tough comparison period when buyers rushed to purchase EVs ahead of the expiration of federal incentives.
Picking Potential Winners
While it is not possible to be sure about which companies are well-positioned to beat earnings estimates, our proprietary methodology — Earnings ESP — makes it relatively simple. You can uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they’re reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.
The combination of a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold) increases the odds of an earnings beat. Earnings ESP shows the percentage difference between the Most Accurate Estimate and the Zacks Consensus Estimate.
Our research shows that for stocks with the abovementioned combination, the chances of an earnings beat are as high as 70%.
Our Choices
General Motors: The company has an Earnings ESP of +1.22% and a Zacks Rank #3. The company is scheduled to release third-quarter results on Oct. 20. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for General Motors’ to-be-reported quarter’s earnings and revenues is pegged at $3.52 per share and $48.24 billion, respectively. EPS estimates for the third quarter have moved up by 2 cents in the past seven days. General Motors surpassed earnings estimates in each of the trailing four quarters.
GM’s vehicle deliveries declined in both key markets in the third quarter of 2026, falling 5.5% year over year to 670,974 units in the United States and 10% to 358,000 units in China. The slowdown could weigh on revenues, although expanding software and digital services may provide some cushion.
GM’s disciplined pricing strategy is another potential support for profitability. By keeping incentives below the industry average for more than three years, the automaker has avoided aggressive discounting, helping protect margins amid tariff-related costs and inflation. Reflecting this resilience, the Zacks Consensus Estimate for GM North America’s operating income stands at $3.28 billion, up from $2.5 billion in the year-ago quarter.
PACCAR: The company has an Earnings ESP of +1.04% and a Zacks Rank #3. The company is scheduled to release third-quarter results on Oct. 27. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for PACCAR’s to-be-reported quarter’s earnings and revenues (truck, parts and other) is pegged at $1.61 per share and $7.56 billion, respectively. EPS estimates for the third quarter have moved up by a cent in the past 60 days. PACCAR surpassed earnings estimates in two of the trailing four quarters and matched on the other occasions.
Higher truck deliveries are likely to boost PACCAR’s results. The company expects to deliver approximately 42,000 trucks in the to-be-reported quarter, implying an uptick of roughly 8% sequentially and 31% on a yearly basis. PACCAR Parts unit is also expected to boost revenues.
Additionally, efficient manufacturing and disciplined cost management, PACCAR expects the margin to reach about 14.5% in the third quarter, up from 14.4% in the second quarter of 2025 and 12.5% in the year-ago period. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for PACCAR’s Trucks and Parts pretax profit is pegged at $317 million and $468 million, implying year-over-year growth of 209% and 14%, respectively.
Ford: The company has an Earnings ESP of +6.56% and a Zacks Rank #3. The company is scheduled to release third-quarter results on Oct. 28. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Ford’s to-be-reported quarter’s earnings and automotive revenues is pegged at 39 cents per share and $45.7 billion, respectively. EPS estimates for the third quarter have moved down by 2 cents in the past seven days. Ford surpassed earnings estimates in three of the trailing four quarters, and missed once.
Ford’s focus on higher-margin vehicles is likely to have supported its performance ahead of earnings. The company’s U.S. sales fell 6.6% year over year to 509,764 vehicles in the third quarter of 2026, largely due to the planned phase-out of the Escape and Corsair. However, demand for large SUVs, including the Explorer and Expedition, along with sales of the F-Series, Maverick and Super Duty trucks, is expected to have supported revenues and product mix.
Ford is prioritizing trucks, large SUVs, off-road models and premium trims to protect pricing and profitability. Reflecting confidence in this strategy, management raised its 2026 Ford Blue EBIT guidance to $5-$5.5 billion from $4.5-$5 billion, anticipating a favorable product mix through the year.
Rivian: The company has an Earnings ESP of +7.38% and a Zacks Rank #3. The company is scheduled to release third-quarter results on Oct. 29. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Rivian’s to-be-reported quarter’s loss per share and revenues is pegged at 66 cents per share and $1.97 billion, respectively. Loss estimates for the third quarter have narrowed by one cent in the past seven days. Rivian incurred a lower-than-expected loss in each of the trailing four quarters.
Rivian’s third-quarter 2026 deliveries rose 45.8% year over year and 58% sequentially to 19,248 vehicles, exceeding the Zacks Consensus Estimate of 17,792 units. The launch of the more affordable R2 SUV, which began reaching customers in June, is likely to have fueled this growth by expanding Rivian’s reach beyond its premium R1S and R1T models. The lower-priced offering is particularly important amid the expiration of federal EV tax credits, tariff pressures and subdued industry demand.
Growth in software and services is another potential tailwind, with the Zacks Consensus Estimate for this segment’s revenues at $622 million, up from $515 million in the second quarter and $416 million a year earlier. However, the R2 production ramp is expected to weigh on automotive gross profit again in the third quarter.
View the Zacks #1 Rank List
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Q3 Auto Earnings Preview: 4 Stocks Set to Beat Estimates
The third-quarter earnings season for the Auto-Tires-Trucks sector kicks off on Oct. 20. Despite rising affordability pressures, the U.S. auto market has remained relatively resilient, supported by fleet purchases and demand from higher-income buyers. Easier access to credit has also helped cushion the impact of persistent inflation and weak consumer confidence.
Per the Earnings Outlook report dated Oct. 14, the auto sector’s earnings and revenues for third-quarter 2026 are expected to grow 3.4% and 0.6%, respectively, on a year-over-year basis. We have identified — with the help of the Zacks Stock Screener — a few auto players that are set to outshine the Zacks Consensus Estimate this earnings season.
These include General Motors (GM - Free Report) , PACCAR (PCAR - Free Report) , Ford (F - Free Report) and Rivian Automotive (RIVN - Free Report) . Before we discuss the companies, let’s take a look at the factors shaping the quarterly performance.
Factors at Play
The U.S. auto market continued to show resilience despite affordability pressures. New-vehicle sales declined 0.7% year over year to roughly 4.12 million units in the third quarter, per Cox Automotive. For the first nine months of 2026, sales fell about 2% to 12.06 million units. High fuel prices, persistent inflation and rising living costs have been weighing on household budgets, yet demand has held up better than expected.
However, the strength is not evenly distributed. Kelley Blue Book reported that the average transaction price of a new vehicle rose for the fourth consecutive month in September to $50,562, approaching the record of $50,614 set in December 2025. This price environment is increasingly pushing budget-conscious buyers out of the new-car market, while wealthier consumers continue to support sales. Greater access to credit is also helping sustain demand.
Fleet purchases are providing another important source of support. They accounted for 20% of U.S. vehicle sales during the first nine months, with government and rental purchases increasing 7%. In contrast, retail sales to individual consumers declined 5%, highlighting the growing importance of fleet demand in offsetting weakness in the consumer market.
Electric vehicles (EVs) have also held up better than expected. U.S. EV sales reached 262,649 units in the third quarter, up 6.1% sequentially and marking their strongest quarterly showing since the third quarter of 2025. However, sales remained 39.5% below the year-ago level, but that’s a tough comparison period when buyers rushed to purchase EVs ahead of the expiration of federal incentives.
Picking Potential Winners
While it is not possible to be sure about which companies are well-positioned to beat earnings estimates, our proprietary methodology — Earnings ESP — makes it relatively simple. You can uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they’re reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.
The combination of a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold) increases the odds of an earnings beat. Earnings ESP shows the percentage difference between the Most Accurate Estimate and the Zacks Consensus Estimate.
You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.
Our research shows that for stocks with the abovementioned combination, the chances of an earnings beat are as high as 70%.
Our Choices
General Motors: The company has an Earnings ESP of +1.22% and a Zacks Rank #3. The company is scheduled to release third-quarter results on Oct. 20. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for General Motors’ to-be-reported quarter’s earnings and revenues is pegged at $3.52 per share and $48.24 billion, respectively. EPS estimates for the third quarter have moved up by 2 cents in the past seven days. General Motors surpassed earnings estimates in each of the trailing four quarters.
General Motors Company Price and EPS Surprise
General Motors Company price-eps-surprise | General Motors Company Quote
GM’s vehicle deliveries declined in both key markets in the third quarter of 2026, falling 5.5% year over year to 670,974 units in the United States and 10% to 358,000 units in China. The slowdown could weigh on revenues, although expanding software and digital services may provide some cushion.
GM’s disciplined pricing strategy is another potential support for profitability. By keeping incentives below the industry average for more than three years, the automaker has avoided aggressive discounting, helping protect margins amid tariff-related costs and inflation. Reflecting this resilience, the Zacks Consensus Estimate for GM North America’s operating income stands at $3.28 billion, up from $2.5 billion in the year-ago quarter.
PACCAR: The company has an Earnings ESP of +1.04% and a Zacks Rank #3. The company is scheduled to release third-quarter results on Oct. 27. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for PACCAR’s to-be-reported quarter’s earnings and revenues (truck, parts and other) is pegged at $1.61 per share and $7.56 billion, respectively. EPS estimates for the third quarter have moved up by a cent in the past 60 days. PACCAR surpassed earnings estimates in two of the trailing four quarters and matched on the other occasions.
PACCAR Inc. Price and EPS Surprise
PACCAR Inc. price-eps-surprise | PACCAR Inc. Quote
Higher truck deliveries are likely to boost PACCAR’s results. The company expects to deliver approximately 42,000 trucks in the to-be-reported quarter, implying an uptick of roughly 8% sequentially and 31% on a yearly basis. PACCAR Parts unit is also expected to boost revenues.
Additionally, efficient manufacturing and disciplined cost management, PACCAR expects the margin to reach about 14.5% in the third quarter, up from 14.4% in the second quarter of 2025 and 12.5% in the year-ago period. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for PACCAR’s Trucks and Parts pretax profit is pegged at $317 million and $468 million, implying year-over-year growth of 209% and 14%, respectively.
Ford: The company has an Earnings ESP of +6.56% and a Zacks Rank #3. The company is scheduled to release third-quarter results on Oct. 28. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Ford’s to-be-reported quarter’s earnings and automotive revenues is pegged at 39 cents per share and $45.7 billion, respectively. EPS estimates for the third quarter have moved down by 2 cents in the past seven days. Ford surpassed earnings estimates in three of the trailing four quarters, and missed once.
Ford Motor Company Price and EPS Surprise
Ford Motor Company price-eps-surprise | Ford Motor Company Quote
Ford’s focus on higher-margin vehicles is likely to have supported its performance ahead of earnings. The company’s U.S. sales fell 6.6% year over year to 509,764 vehicles in the third quarter of 2026, largely due to the planned phase-out of the Escape and Corsair. However, demand for large SUVs, including the Explorer and Expedition, along with sales of the F-Series, Maverick and Super Duty trucks, is expected to have supported revenues and product mix.
Ford is prioritizing trucks, large SUVs, off-road models and premium trims to protect pricing and profitability. Reflecting confidence in this strategy, management raised its 2026 Ford Blue EBIT guidance to $5-$5.5 billion from $4.5-$5 billion, anticipating a favorable product mix through the year.
Rivian: The company has an Earnings ESP of +7.38% and a Zacks Rank #3. The company is scheduled to release third-quarter results on Oct. 29. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Rivian’s to-be-reported quarter’s loss per share and revenues is pegged at 66 cents per share and $1.97 billion, respectively. Loss estimates for the third quarter have narrowed by one cent in the past seven days. Rivian incurred a lower-than-expected loss in each of the trailing four quarters.
Rivian Automotive, Inc. Price and EPS Surprise
Rivian Automotive, Inc. price-eps-surprise | Rivian Automotive, Inc. Quote
Rivian’s third-quarter 2026 deliveries rose 45.8% year over year and 58% sequentially to 19,248 vehicles, exceeding the Zacks Consensus Estimate of 17,792 units. The launch of the more affordable R2 SUV, which began reaching customers in June, is likely to have fueled this growth by expanding Rivian’s reach beyond its premium R1S and R1T models. The lower-priced offering is particularly important amid the expiration of federal EV tax credits, tariff pressures and subdued industry demand.
Growth in software and services is another potential tailwind, with the Zacks Consensus Estimate for this segment’s revenues at $622 million, up from $515 million in the second quarter and $416 million a year earlier. However, the R2 production ramp is expected to weigh on automotive gross profit again in the third quarter.